23 September 2026
Climate change and allergies in Australia
A changing climate is already affecting people with hay fever and asthma in Australia. Longer pollen seasons, thunderstorm asthma, bushfire smoke and mould after floods all play a part. Some of this is well established, and some is still uncertain, particularly the Australian data. This article sets out what the evidence shows and practical steps that can reduce your risk.
In brief
- Melbourne has had some of the highest recorded rates of hay fever in the world, mostly driven by grass pollen.
- Warmer temperatures and higher carbon dioxide levels can make plants flower earlier and release more pollen.
- Thunderstorm asthma and bushfire smoke are serious risks for people with hay fever or asthma.
- Good control of hay fever and asthma before spring is one of the most useful things you can do.
- If you get a cough, wheeze or chest tightness in spring, see your GP, even if you have never been told you have asthma.
Why Australia is exposed
Australians have high rates of allergy. In one large international study, Melbourne had the highest rate of hay fever of all the cities involved (about one in three adults) and the highest rate of allergy to grass pollen. Our grass pollen season is also driven strongly by weather: rainfall in winter and spring and the number of hot days both affect how heavy a season will be. This makes pollen exposure here sensitive to changes in climate.
Longer and heavier pollen seasons
Plants respond to warmth and to carbon dioxide. In controlled growth experiments, higher carbon dioxide levels increased the amount of pollen some grasses produce. The clearest long-term data come from North America, where pollen seasons between 1990 and 2018 started about 20 days earlier and pollen levels rose by about 21%. Researchers attributed a substantial part of the earlier start to climate change.
Australia has shorter pollen records, and our seasons vary a great deal from year to year, so a clear local trend has not yet been shown. Researchers expect climate change to alter pollen exposure here, but how much, and in which direction for each region, is not yet known.
Thunderstorm asthma
During grass pollen season, certain thunderstorms can trigger sudden asthma in large numbers of people at once. Pollen grains are swept up into the storm, absorb moisture and burst into tiny particles. The cold wind gusts ahead of the storm carry these particles down to ground level, where they can be breathed deep into the lungs.
On 21 November 2016, a thunderstorm in Melbourne led to 3,365 more respiratory presentations to Melbourne and Geelong public hospitals than expected, and contributed to 10 deaths. In a survey of people who went to emergency departments that night, only 28% had a current diagnosis of asthma. Most had hay fever. Whether climate change will make these events more frequent is uncertain, but more intense storms and heavier pollen seasons would both increase the risk.
In Victoria, the epidemic thunderstorm asthma season runs from 1 October to 31 December. Daily risk forecasts are published during this period.
Not just Melbourne: Wagga Wagga and the Riverina
Thunderstorm asthma is not only a city problem. Wagga Wagga, a community I have close ties to, had one of Australia's largest earlier events. On 30 to 31 October 1997, Wagga Wagga Base Hospital recorded 215 asthma presentations in 24 hours. The Riverina is surrounded by ryegrass pasture, and a study of inland NSW hospitals found that the ryegrass pollen season (mid-October to the end of November) made up only 17% of the year but accounted for more than half of the days with peak asthma presentations. Wagga Wagga had the sharpest peaks of all the towns studied.
Victoria's thunderstorm asthma forecast does not cover southern NSW. If you live in the Riverina and have hay fever or asthma, keep your treatment going through late spring, and be indoors with windows closed when storms roll in on high pollen days.
If you or someone with you has severe or worsening breathing difficulty, follow your asthma action plan and call 000.
Bushfire smoke
Fire seasons in south-eastern Australia are becoming longer and more severe. Smoke is an irritant rather than an allergen, but it can make asthma much worse and irritate the nose and eyes. During the 2019 to 2020 Black Summer fires, smoke was estimated to have caused 417 excess deaths, more than 3,000 hospital admissions for heart and lung problems, and 1,305 emergency department presentations for asthma across eastern Australia.
Floods, humidity and mould
Heavy rain and flooding can leave homes damp, and mould grows readily in these conditions. In people who are allergic to mould, the spores can trigger hay fever and asthma. Damp buildings can also worsen breathing symptoms in people without a mould allergy.
What you can do
- Treat hay fever properly, and start early. Many hay fever treatments work best when used every day, starting a few weeks before the pollen season. Ask your GP or pharmacist which is right for you.
- If you have asthma, keep it under control. Take your preventer as prescribed, carry your reliever, and make sure you have an up-to-date written asthma action plan.
- Do not ignore chest symptoms. Cough, wheeze, chest tightness or breathlessness in spring can be a sign of asthma, even if you have only ever had hay fever.
- Check the forecasts. In Victoria, the Melbourne Pollen Count and Forecast gives daily pollen levels, and the Victorian Department of Health publishes epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecasts. On high-risk days, try to be indoors with windows and doors closed before and during the storm.
- Reduce smoke exposure. On smoky days, stay indoors with windows closed and set any air conditioner to recirculate. A portable air purifier with a HEPA filter can help in one room. A well-fitted P2 or N95 mask gives some protection if you need to be outside.
- Deal with damp early. Fix leaks, ventilate bathrooms and laundries, and dry out any water damage as soon as possible.
- Ask about desensitisation. For people with significant grass pollen allergy, allergen immunotherapy (desensitisation) can reduce symptoms over time. It is a long-term treatment, usually taken for about three years. How well it works varies between people, and it is not suitable for everyone.
When to see an immunologist or allergist
A referral from your GP is worth considering if your hay fever is not controlled despite regular treatment, if your asthma worsens each spring or on smoky days, if you are unsure what is triggering your symptoms, or if you would like to discuss desensitisation. Allergy testing, interpreted alongside your symptoms, can help identify which pollens or moulds are relevant to you, which helps target treatment.
Last reviewed: September 2026. This article is general information and does not replace advice from your own doctor. Key sources: Victorian Department of Health, Epidemic Thunderstorm Asthma Program; Borchers Arriagada et al., Medical Journal of Australia 2020; Anderegg et al., PNAS 2021; Thien et al., Lancet Planetary Health 2018; Hayden and Muscatello, NSW Public Health Bulletin 2011; Beggs, Public Health Research & Practice 2018. For more information, see the ASCIA website at allergy.org.au.